Brexit means Geo-political Realignment

The Brexit outcome may be among the most momentous decisions for Western Civilization in our lifetime. It advances the natural human tendency towards regional culture against globalization’s dream of mono-culture. By voting to leave the EU, the UK stated a preference to be an independent country instead of a state within a Federated Europe.

Greece tried and failed to exit the European Union with their own Grexit in 2012. Although they had the voter’s mandate, they were weak economically and their politicians were too afraid to take that monumental step. Yanis Varoufakis was one of the few Greeks with the vision and the foresight to completely understand what was at stake.

Many thinkers predicted that, if anyone, Britain has the culture, the economy, and the geo-political alliances that can withstand the pressure and the transition.

Brexit invalidates the Globalization narrative

Brexit signals an objection to a globalization narrative that is broadcast in the media to convince people that global government is best and acceptable. It also signals a realignment of current alliances.

The media and opponents use the common “ad hominem fallacy” to brand brexiteers as nationalist, populist, racists, homophobes, and therefore bad. In this Ted Talk the speaker, Alexander Betts, in talking about Brexit, makes the assumption that Globalization has benefits and that the uninitiated should be brought along with training. He commits the classical “Red Herring fallacy” by redirecting to training rather than recognizing the voter’s priority for independence. He is actually advocating human programming.

The advent of #Trump and #Brexit exposed a creeping story line that has been peddled to children for generations. It can best be described by the lyrics to the John Lennon song “imagine”

One thing is for sure, that globalist dream can now be achieved by mass hypnosis through main stream and social media. This is why we see platforms like Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter banning what they call extreme views and fake news. At the same time conventional media spins a composed narrative designed to shape your world view.

Lennon’s dream of “No Countries” imagines a centrally governed mono-culture which is not achievable for very simple human and environmental reasons. It presupposes continuous unlimited energy to support a growing population and no regional disasters. It ignores the contradiction of culturally homogeneous countries like China or Japan.

Brexit and other populist movements seek to prioritize regional cultures over a federated state or a global nation. Lets see why this might be a better approach.

Regional cultures are nations. A network of nations are more resilient from natural disasters than centralized global governance. We expect this since, in network architecture, distributed systems was shown to be more reliable than centralized systems. That’s why we have the Internet.

Furthermore, humans tend to clump with others that share their world view and cultural story. This is likely because our brains can manage only 250 connections to others. As a result, our governance networks are typically hierarchical and optimizes at the size of town. Looking at maps of most countries you can recognize a spider web pattern of roads around the capital and main cities.

A distributed system of nations, each clumped in regional areas and centered around a city, has always been the norm for humanity. Benefits of a distributed system of nations include:

  • Resilience to natural disasters up to continental size.
  • Independent trial of ideas to foster innovation within a growing network
  • Optimal match of the way humans think and relate to each other.

Underscoring all this is a continuous need to sustain economic growth and seek a golden age. However, the core problem for humanity is that population growth may soon outstrip the resources of the planet. Environmentalists point at pollution effects and global warming as evidence of an approaching crisis. They offer solutions that assumes limits to growth with the planet as the limiting factor. The idea of eventual resource failure due to over consumption is described eloquently by Garrett Hardin in Tragedy of the Commons.

How does Brexit fit

What does this have to do with Brexit. Well, the world is already filled with alliances that are not globalized. These are:

  • The Western Civilization anchored by the USA
  • The English speaking alliance identified by the Commonwealth and the Five Eyes network
  • The Islamic States
  • The European Union
  • The Orthodox Alliance anchored by Russia
  • The Oil alliance with Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and Russia
  • The Socialist alliance with China, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea et. al.

If the UK leaves the EU faction in favor of another alliance it will not disturb the natural order of established alliances. In fact it will return the world to the historic normal that existed before the two world wars. What does matter is that multiple social, cultural, and technological developments be allowed to occur independently so that new innovations can compete with and possibly overtake established ideas.

Since the end of the cold war the USA has tried to maintain a global order militarily and with currency controls. However, The currency wars between USD, EUR, YUAN, and #CryptoCurrency signal that control is breaking down as countries resist sanctions and restraints from Anti Money Laundering (AML), Know Your Customer (KYC), and central bank rules. IMF is advancing the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as a global currency and China offers Gold backed Yuan for Oil Purchases. Crypto-currencies offer an alternative for transferring ownership of value on a peer to peer basis without checks of a central authority.

We are assuming that the UK will form stronger ties with English speaking Commonwealth Countries, The USA, and India. Northern Ireland is scheduled to split from the rest if Britain to join Ireland. A referendum is triggered automatically when the Catholic to Protestant demographic changes because of the “Good Friday Agreement”. As a result, the backstop clauses in the EU Withdrawal agreement with the UK is not a long term liability. In fact Ireland may also Exit the EU.

IMHO the world will not develop towards a centralized global government for the same reason that you cannot herd cats each with their own ideas of where to go next. Furthermore, the United Nations is a place to exchange standards but not one to designate standards.

The USA has been diminished by its efforts to:

  • Hold the world together through the Bretton Woods System.
  • Expend trillions in blood and treasure to fight wars in Iraq, Afganistan, and Syria.
  • Maintain its oil treaty alliance with Saudi Arabia.
  • Transform China by transferring technology and manufacturing at the expense of its own citizens.

As a result the USA will not be able to stop other alliances from trying alternative economic, environmental, technological, and social methods. In fact the USA and Britain need each other more than ever to protect, renew, and extend the development of Western Civilization. This is one reason why #Brexit is important.

What is the Future

Environmentalists and social leaning thinkers believe that if only we could make people behave properly and think the same way they do everything will will be fine. The one flaw in this argument is that human beings will then have to be programmed to think the same way. This is what the Chinese are trying with their social score and Uyghur training camps. Similar efforts exist in North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and the media in the USA.

These efforts can never succeed because cultural memory persists for many generations even centuries. We saw what happened when the USSR disintegrated. Those countries that lived behind the iron curtain for decades almost immediately returned to their historic cultural norm. In Eastern Europe, Orthodox Christian culture returned to the forefront of the way those countries behave.

Futurists such as George Orwell in 1984, Aldous Huxley in Brave New World, and Harry Harrison in Soylen Green have warned about the dystopian world we could create by attempting to forcibly re-program human beings. Its not worth it and the risks are much too high for those countries who would attempt it. All such attempts will ultimately fail.

The way forward has to be small independently governed nations connected to a global network that allow ideas to be exchanged. This would be similar to the Sumerian and Greek city states. New resources have to be identified that can sustain population growth.

Many are seeing the solar system as the next frontier in the immediate future. It contains the resources needed to power a new golden age. The Killer Apps in the next 10 years can easily be Fusion Energy, Near Earth Asteroid Mining, and Energy Intensive Manufacturing Operations in space.

Further along we should see a flotilla of earth ships initially in earth orbit. Each of these would be the size of a town or small city with an attached agricultural environment. Gerard K. O’Neill, A Princeton physicist, was one of the first to describe the concept of a Space Colony of this type. Jeff Bezos established Blue Origin to contribute to the realization of this vision. The Science Fiction movie Elysium provides a realistic visual display of what an O’Neill Space Colony might be like.

The thing about a O’Neill space colony is that it can be the ideal size of a system governed independently by humans.

Further into the Future

Further into the future humans can expand to large asteroids to form the beginnings of a Dyson Sphere. Solar system resources would be the basis for centuries long growth without war. This future is eloquently visualized in The Expanse TV series

Wrapping up

  • Brexit will occur in some form. When it does a geo-political realignment will occur that negates globalization.
  • The bretton woods system of global currency controls will disintegrate. It will be replaced by #cryptocurrency networks supported by large multinational corporations and/or geo-political alliances.
  • Humanity will begin to colonize the solar system driven by environmentalists who finally realize green renewable energy cannot sustain an ever growing population on the planet.